Visits to Granddad’s were a treat for me. Hard boiled eggs, sardines and lettuce, borscht and Jacobs Cream Crackers. Yummy, yummy. Granddad had a color telly. I remember watching All Our Yesterdays on it - war footage in black and white. And, as clearly as I remember gagging on Sunday dinner I remember the 1938 footage of Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain arriving home from his Munich shindig with Heir Hitler waving a piece of paper in his hand proclaiming “peace in our time.”
As I read John Sumser’s posts War I and War II, and consider Colin Kingsbury’s thoughtful replies to my post Rub-A-Dub-Dub, I am reminded of how things look in black and white and through the eyes of boyish bewilderment. Certainly, I reminded that Granddad took great delight in telling me how he cornered the local black market for tinned sardines from 1943 to the end of the war. Grandma sipped on her borscht and complained about his flights of fancy.
I shall wait to see all of what John Sumser has to say before commenting on his take on the future Talent Wars. I can hardly wait. I also hope Colin Kingsbury will keep us engaged with his modern points of view.
Today, what I will say is this: all this conjecture about future talent supply and demand and demographics and zero population growth – or not as the case may be – is, well, conjecture. What is an irrefutable fact is that today there is not enough talent or skilled labor to provide what we need to sustain our potential growth. Ask anyone who is recruiting nurses, truck drivers, salespeople, scientists, construction superintendents, police officers and what have you. They will tell you if there is a war for talent and what it means to count the dead and bayonet the wounded.
As far as these “talent wars” (or NOT, as you pointed out, Amitai) I am quite sure we could write our own recruiting version of “Much Ado About Nothing” that addresses both sides of this argument. In fact, now that I think about it, isn’t that what we’re doing? I will be Hero to your Claudio and we can draw Benedick and Beatrice out to do what they do best. But then, on second thought, I don’t know I can be all that sweet and endearing on a sustained basis. We could call it “Such Ado About Something”.
Maureen
Okay, not sure where you are on this topic.. but back in April I mentioned some interesting numbers quoted by the department of Labor and AARP that totally contradict that there is a looming war for talent. Back then I was poohed, and interestingly this is now a hot topic…I won’t bore you guys with the details but if anyone wants to consider the numbers, I have them available.
Honestly, everytime I hear about this I want to puke.. okay, maybe that is extreme, but at least gag…
Seriously… Retire..who the hell is going to be able to retire? As it is even Britain raised the retirement age again, and we are pending for the same.. We have to because America could not afford to pay S.S. to the folks if they all decided to retire now…
Not to mention that we can’t count on our benefits far less retirement from the companies we worked for.. GM. Ford, Caterpillar, Enron come to mind… Do we realize that 65-year-old couple retiring without employer-provided health benefits likely would need over 250k just to cover medical costs in retirement beyond federal Medicare coverage. Wonder if that is why AARP announced that more than 85 percent of baby boomers are postponing retirement…
Okay, what about the fact that outsourcing went up 450 percent last year alone.. shoot I promised not to give numbers…
But there are so many factors that will prevent an actual “war for talent” - Let’s look at some of them -
Salaries are going up.. when that happens that it causes interest rates to go up.. interest rates go up next comes a recession… (slowing housing market also an indicator). China, the same country which is having their own issues, is keeping our dollar strong.. without them we would be a hurtin’ - isn’t that scary? That we need outside avenues to keep our dollar strong - yet foreign markets are continuing to upload our bonds at record numbers which is hurting the dollar more.. why is this important, well our last recession was facilited by foreign competition… oh yeah, we forgot something China stopping their IPO ban.. Gee, so now it will be easier to have products made in China. Do we see more opportunity for outsourcing…
So, we continue to have some of the highest gas prices in all time (aw gee, it went down a few cents, are we not excited). We are at war, and cannot dispute America’s 9 Trillion dollar debt, which is increasing at an average of $1.71 billion per day since September 30, 2005!
What is really going to happen is anyones guess, but a labor shortage really?? Supply and demand will curtail representative of needs. I do work in Construction, is there a strong labor shortage, depends on who you speak to.. I see a lot of longterm unemployed as a problem more than anything..
Yeah long term unemployed.. that really bugs me to - these so wonderful numbers that state unemployment is about 5 percent - well whoohee.. Hey, it isn’t 5 Percent or there abouts.. and it really continues to diverge…
Long term unemployment (those no longer collecting unemployment insurance, have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer) Since the beginning of this recovery (November 2001), the unemployment rate has averaged 5.7%, varying between 5.2% and 6.3%, with the average share of long-termers at 20.4%. Historically, when unemployment rates have averaged 5.7%, the average share of the long-term unemployed was only 12.3% . Gee, that is WAY over.. let’s see about getting these people jobs - if not some education will be great..
Great article by the DOL regarding Long-term unemployment and recessions http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils53.pdf#search=%22longterm%20unemployment%20statistics%22
Oh, and what about these layoffs that keep happening, again GM, Johnson Controls are also coming to mind.. JCI is expecting 5k in one fell swoop, not that they didn’t do that same number 2 years ago..
What some are predicting is completely debatable.. Which then brings me to a Huge question, are companies prepared for the possible outcome of Not having a labor shortage but the opposite?
Are we prepared for a more senior workforce? To see more offshoring? Provide more education for our current employees and workforce? What about possibly having to trim fat should the economy fall? If your company has to trim fat How many other companies will that affect?
We are in a comfortable position, but are we prepared for the big possiblity that the Pending Labor Shortage is not Really Pending? What is your backup plan? Or is it business as usual?
Ami, this is an interesting post.. but really, shouldn’t we be looking at what we could be doing to help improve the possible scenarios… My 2 cents
Sorry for the double post but many also pooh-pooh the demographics of the long term unemployed.. Putting them as blue collared workers, lack of education, etc.. not the case… really what they are are as follows ..
In particular, long-term unemployment became more concentrated among three groups:
Mid-career workers (those over 45 years old)—34.8% of long-term unemployed workers were over 45 years old;
College graduates—18.1% of the long-term unemployed had college degrees; and
Executive, professional, and managerial workers—20.1% of the long-term unemployed came from these occupations.
http://www.nelp.org/ui/initiatives/unemployed/longtermun051503.cfm
http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/issuebriefs_ib194
So does this mean that third party recruiting fees go up? That sounds like good news.
Good post Amitai and phew, glad karen m chose not to give us those numbers - how many would there have been!!
What we all seem to maybe be missing is that in the early 70’s in the UK when I was a mere youngster, times were not so great. We had national strikes, power cuts, maybe a black and white TV, no junk food (see some good stuff), one family car if well off etc etc.
But then we grew, and became workers of the 80’s, Maggie crushed the nationalised industries and we all saw massive growth, a small ‘depression’ and then more growth. Now we have a TV per room, more cars than we can handle, designer labels, designer rip offs, free/cheap music, food, warmth and everything else we want. But it all cost and damn did we work some hours for it all.
And what do the 20 somethings think? I ain’t working like a dog dude (I am the tail), I gotta do my thang….. so us 40 somethings are also thinking hey, why work, miss the kids grow then get to 60ish and retire (prepare for death). Maybe we work less hours now, get to know our kids, work longer, stay alive, enjoy our heritage for a little longer.
My point: this talent war is not a war, it’s apathy, fight back, smelling the coffee, enjoying life, not relying on pensions. It’s not that we are not out there, we are just not interested. The long tail is at long last doing the wagging.
Hey, sorry all, but a new term springs to mind, and it’s even worse than the last one:
Web 2.0 - War for Talent Worklife Balance!!
Peter
Karen - Thanks for the comments, POV, and interesting stats and links. All great stuff.
Jason - As far as war goes, you are - indeed - a mercenary
Peter - What is the perception/conventional wisdom in the UK regarding the Talent War - reality or hype?
Last - BUT NOT LEAST - need help sourcing?
Maureen Sharib
Telephone Names Sourcer
TechTrak
513 899 9628
;0)