Well, Colin Kingsbury says: “Rumors of my blogswap death are greatly exaggerated.” I say: “Let us so live that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry.”
Great post from Colin for Blog Swap week 3.999. Enjoy!
Bah, humbug!
Being a contrarian has historically been a mixed career move. On one hand, it may get a statue put up in your honor. On the other hand, it will likely be erected on the spot where you were hanged, drawn, and quartered before a cheering crowd of thousands. In business these days the risks are considerably smaller to be sure, but saying I told you so still isn’t likely to earn you an invite to this season’s smart parties. Grinning toady boosterism is still the best way to make friends, though one must be careful to not take it too far lest you be forced to reinvent yourself as a Cautionary Example.
But enough of that – I come not to praise Caesar, but to bury him, or at least ask some pointed questions. Caesar in this case being Generation Y and its accessories like MySpace, which of late have been the obsession of nearly every online recruiting publication. Just today, one well-respected industry luminary wrote,
If you have seen or used MySpace.com or Facebook, you are looking at the type of tools recruiters will be using in just a few months. Do you have a profile on MySpace? Why not?
When I read things like this my mind flips immediately to this. And that brings up a lot of interesting points to consider.
Of course, MySpace is clearly going to own the world. It is already one of the most-visited sites on the ‘Net and it’s rare to find a person not yet old enough to rent a car who doesn’t have a profile. Orkut is as obscure as its name, and Friendster is your father’s social-networking Oldsmobile, so clearly Rupert Murdoch made a wise investment and will shortly own an even larger part of the world than he already does. Of course, back in 1999 people were saying all the same things, and perhaps more, about none other than AOL. While Larry Page and Sergey Brin were still scrubbing the grad-school muck out from under their fingernails, Steve Case was preparing to launch the Titanic of Web 1.0 deals.
Today AOL is almost entirely an object of ridicule whose complete disappearance from the Internet would be celebrated in those few areas where its passing was not entirely unnoticed. The best plan they can come up with seems to be to throw out the one part of the business that makes money in hopes of boosting the future prospects of the parts that don’t. If approved, this will doubtless provide a fitting Viking funeral for a company that has proven that just because you do nothing wrong in your first ten years of business doesn’t mean you won’t screw up every single thing you do in the ten that follow.
One of the most interesting bits of willful blindness in the social-networking space that I see has to do with age. There is no question that MySpace et. al. are a huge presence in youth culture at the moment, and every comment on the subject notes the fact that anyone old enough to rent a car is more or less out of the loop. This is the typical pattern of pop culture sensations going back at least as far as, well, pop culture. I have to wonder, did recruiting experts of the late 1980s suggest that these were the future of corporate personnel planning?
OK, so I am being a little gratuitous. But I don’t think it’s gratuitous to note that the current excitement over social networking is driven almost entirely by people under a very young age, and we have yet to see how the relationship between this extraordinarily-fickle audience and this extraordinarily-fickle technology changes as this audience grows up. Among other things, the basic patterns of social life change enormously between 25 and 35. These could of course strengthen the presence of tools like MySpace, but they could just as likely mean that these services have a loyal but short-term audience, not unlike Modern Bride magazine. I don’t think it’s the least bit unfair to say that social networking has been underwhelming outside the old-enough-to-drink crowd; despite endless hype, services like Ryze and LinkedIn remain niche tools on the best of days.
Last, let’s talk a little about Generation Y and how it is going to force companies to rethink the nature of work itself and other such grandiosities. Everyone talks about how they are going to change the workplace but no one spends much time thinking about how the workplace will change them. Up until the age of 22 or so, most kids spend most of their time with other kids, in school environments built to cater to them. Not until they enter the workforce are they really required to spend a large chunk of time with people of widely-varying ages and where their success and satisfaction are not the first order of business. This is the root of Mark Twain’s famous quip about leaving home at 18 and returning at 21, amazed to find how much wiser his parents had become in just a few years. Hey, I sympathize: my generation was supposed to be full of nothing but anti-corporate, directionless slackers, but that was before we started founding Internet companies and complaining about Generation Y and the Baby Boomers stealing all the attention.
© Copyright 2006 Colin W. Kingsbury
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