Amitai Givertz’s Recruitomatic Blog

All this talk of “Talent Wars” has made me feel queasy. Colin Kingsbury posted a rebuttal to my post Rub-A-Dub-Dub with What if they threw a war and nobody came? in which he restates his assertion that talk of an inevitable talent shortage is nonsensical – a position which I questioned, not refuted. But I concede now, not for having been persuaded one way or another, but because Colin Kingsbury has left me with a sharp pain in the back of my head, reaching for an ice pack. I guess some questions are better left unasked, not answered.

Similarly, John Sumser with his posts War I, War II, War III and War IV has led me to wonder if he is in cahoots with Colin Kingsbury, illustrating beautifully that – as Colin Kingsbury commented – “if you torture statistics long enough they will eventually confess to anything.” Unfortunately – as it seems to me – John Sumser has concluded that in establishing “name, rank and serial number” he has uncovered the identity of an enemy within when in reality all it is is census data withstanding the electric cattle prod of John Sumser’s analysis.

Conclusions drawn in conclusion of this thing, for the time being at least:

1. Colin Kingsbury is a wonderfully gifted blogger and salesman too. As a blogger he writes and asserts with a persuasive, authoritative tone that comes with a journalistic temperament and Clintonesque youthfulness. As a salesman, how could you not buy a time-machine from this man, warranted for the next ten years? Colin Kingsbury is an ace.

2. After putting us through the wringer for a whole week with graphs and data and bullet points, John Sumser in now in two minds – two minds and undecided! – about the Talent Wars:

“So, the answer is that there is and isn’t a labor shortage. To the extent that you desire a ready trained and available workforce at your whim, there’s a problem. To the extent that you are willing to articulate your needs clearly and invest in the people you hire, there’s not much of one.”

…but unequivocal in his prognosis:

“If we are really going to continue to grow the economy at 20th century rates, we’ll have to make some changes.”

Brilliant.

3. You can look out ten years or project fifty years out, it hardly matters. Anyone who suggests that hiring talent today is not significantly affected by a shortage of qualified candidates – passive, active or not yet born – and that this situation will continue to be problematic for the predictable future, is living in cloud-cuckoo land. Reflect on your own experience and consider how different things looked in your world, ten, thirty, fifty years ago. Look at the global, economic, social, work/life projections that were made for us back then and look where we are today. Based on those reflections, how certain are you about what your world will look like even tomorrow? Perhaps Colin Kingsbury is right – and he could be – but a good many of us who graduated from the School of Hard Knocks will be dead long before we can wheel John Sumser out in 2050 to pat him on the back for an astute reading of Pakistan’s projected population growth and changing demographics.

4. Did someone miss the fact that in the places where we have economic growth today we are fighting a global war for talent? Thankfully, John Sumser suggests that in his upcoming series of posts he will give us tools to navigate the upcoming labor requirements, reconcile his ambivalence. Let’s hope those tools are more like a pickax than a ice pick. Lord knows, we are going to need more than conjecture and a sharp pain in the back of the head if we are to crack this one.

John Sumser forces the dim-witted among us to google the crypto-heading of his article ZPG to find it means “Zero Population Growth.” In his Electronic Recruiting News article, John Sumser bullet points some changes to note as the global talent shortage becomes even more acute. In a rare departure from protocol, he publishes a reply – not to save himself the bother of writing something before taking off a long Labor Day Weekend – but because Colin Kingsbury is one of the very few in the recruiting bubble who John Sumser endorses, and for heaven’s sake, why not?

In ZPG II Colin Kingsbury makes some valid points relative to population growth and reasons that under favorable conditions – George Bush leaving office,  migration to the U.S. of much needed talent, not patronizing younger employees, squeezing round pegs into square holes and so on –  the projected shortfall in talent may be averted. 

I cannot argue that Colin Kingsbury’s point of view is not compelling. It is. I cannot argue that he is wrong. I don’t know. What I can say is this: his hypothesis cannot be tested against alternate points of view or current trends because he offers no data or research to support it. Maybe there isn’t data out there. Who knows?

And, how will Colin Kingsbury’s speculation be put to the test without a debate of the issues? Again, John Sumser leaves the dim-wits hyperventilating for the ability to post a comment and develop the thread to engage his elevated readership – beyond the reach of the recruiting blogosphere – in a more involved process of thought-leadership? Don’t ERN’s readers deserve an answer to the types of question that could be posed to help develop Colin Kingsbury’s optimism and our own understanding of the issues? For example:

1. How are we going to reconcile the increased levels of U.S. xenophobia and racism arising form the threats of “Islamofascism” with the possible migration of teaching, healthcare, technical, scientific and engineering talent from countries like India, Pakistan and the Philippines? Is it as simple as waiting for President Bush to leave office in 2008? Will everyone stop hating Americans then? Will all veiled and bearded olive complexions suddenly morph from potential terrorists to potential hires? Or will their negative image persist, impede progress?

2. As over half of the U.S. government’s civilian workforce and C-level baby boomers are projected to retire in the next five years on their lucrative pensions – perhaps the last generation to have the option of a lifetimes investment in work to draw on – who is going to lead us? If it is the round pegs in the square holes, at what point are we going to address failed succession and workforce planning and social systems – like education – that have in large part contributed to the types of problems we face today? And who is to say employers are ready for a “misfit” workforce that anyway? Not me.

3. The job-hopping trend continues. 74% of workers are not “happy” at work, open to new and “better” opportunities. The trends continue to disadvantage the majority of employers. So, at what point does retention becomes a key issue for an organization’s continued prosperity in the face of ongoing talent shortages? Are we ready as a society to deal with the underlying issues that continue to threaten the U.S. economic engine like our insatiable appetite for everything on-demand including fulfillment at work and for career? How are Colin Kingsbury’s views of the talent shortage positively or negatively impacted by these types of workforce dynamics?

Addressing the issues of talent shortages and zero population growth and potential fixes obviously transcends a couple of posts on a couple of blogs. But I don’t hear the conversation being advanced anywhere else online. Points of view are easy to come by. A debate of the issues is a tougher thing to find, like a good conversation I guess. Another reason, Mr. Sumser, as to why we blog.  And why – long weekends aside – Recruitomatic applauds your posting of Colin Kingsbury’s post.